Sats As Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
27.12%
increased by 0.45%
1 Week
29.00%
increased by 2.33%
1 Month
33.69%
increased by 7.02%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 12:57 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3889 | 4.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.2350 | 5.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6759 | 20.75*** |
| γleverage | 0.0636 | 0.82 |
0.943
Persistence12d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3889 | 4.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2350 | 5.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6759 | 20.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0636 | 0.82 |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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