V-Lab
Sats As Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
27.95%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
28.41%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
29.09%
increased by 0.40%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 01:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7560 | 3.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.0810 | 2.20** |
| βGARCH | 0.7458 | 9.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -1.5568 | -2.67*** |
| γ2 | 2.7054 | 3.26*** |
| γ3 | -2.0823 | -4.18*** |
| γ4 | 1.2419 | 2.77*** |
| γ5 | -0.2521 | -0.49 |
| γ6 | -0.0426 | -0.10 |
0.827
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7560 | 3.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0810 | 2.20** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7458 | 9.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -1.5568 | -2.67*** |
| γ2 | 2.7054 | 3.26*** |
| γ3 | -2.0823 | -4.18*** |
| γ4 | 1.2419 | 2.77*** |
| γ5 | -0.2521 | -0.49 |
| γ6 | -0.0426 | -0.10 |
Persistence:
0.827
Half-life:
4 days
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities