Sats As Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
25.97%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
26.92%
increased by 0.71%
1 Month
28.67%
increased by 2.46%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2019 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8733 | 3.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0892 | 2.42** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7873 | 12.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.6128 | -1.45 |
| γ2 | 1.1674 | 1.90* |
| γ3 | -1.2257 | -2.98*** |
| γ4 | 1.0668 | 2.76*** |
| γ5 | -0.4326 | -1.59 |
Persistence:
0.877
Half-life:
5 days
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