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Sats As Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

27.72%

increased by 1.32%

1 Week

28.13%

increased by 1.73%

1 Month

28.74%

increased by 2.34%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 12:58 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Sats As S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 23, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7605
3.87***
αARCH0.0782
2.15**
βGARCH0.7495
9.13***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-1.5186
-2.69***
γ22.6548
3.30***
γ3-2.0903
-4.31***
γ41.3085
3.04***
γ5-0.3357
-0.69
γ60.0060
0.01

0.828

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7605
3.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0782
2.15**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7495
9.13***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-1.5186
-2.69***
γ22.6548
3.30***
γ3-2.0903
-4.31***
γ41.3085
3.04***
γ5-0.3357
-0.69
γ60.0060
0.01

Persistence:

0.828

Half-life:

4 days