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V-Lab

Sats As Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

25.97%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

26.92%

increased by 0.71%

1 Month

28.67%

increased by 2.46%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Sats As S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 23, 2019 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8733
3.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0892
2.42**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7873
12.68***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.6128
-1.45
γ21.1674
1.90*
γ3-1.2257
-2.98***
γ41.0668
2.76***
γ5-0.4326
-1.59

Persistence:

0.877

Half-life:

5 days