V-Lab
Sats As Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
35.84%
increased by 1.19%
1 Week
34.45%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
32.07%
decreased by 2.58%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7540 | 3.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0781 | 2.17** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7628 | 9.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -1.5862 | -2.61*** |
| γ2 | 2.7436 | 3.18*** |
| γ3 | -2.0628 | -4.00*** |
| γ4 | 1.1493 | 2.46** |
| γ5 | -0.1225 | -0.23 |
| γ6 | -0.1359 | -0.30 |
Persistence:
0.841
Half-life:
4 days
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