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V-Lab
V-Lab

Sats As APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

30.53%

increased by 0.26%

1 Week

31.64%

increased by 1.37%

1 Month

34.79%

increased by 4.52%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 12:57 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Sats As APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 23, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 185% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.54 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 185% more than positive returnsδ = 1.54 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2159
1.78*
αARCH0.0837
3.15***
βGARCH0.8750
25.18***
γleverage0.3267
2.33**
δpower1.5438
3.99***

0.951

Persistence

14d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2159
1.78*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0837
3.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8750
25.18***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3267
2.33**
δ

power

Transformation power

1.5438
3.99***

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days