Sats As APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
30.53%
1 Week
31.64%
1 Month
34.79%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 12:57 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 185% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.54 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2159 | 1.78* |
| αARCH | 0.0837 | 3.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8750 | 25.18*** |
| γleverage | 0.3267 | 2.33** |
| δpower | 1.5438 | 3.99*** |
0.951
Persistence14d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2159 | 1.78* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0837 | 3.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8750 | 25.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3267 | 2.33** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5438 | 3.99*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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