Sats As GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
30.88%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
31.79%
increased by 0.93%
1 Month
34.36%
increased by 3.50%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 12:57 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2937 | 2.41** |
| αARCH | 0.0316 | 2.08** |
| βGARCH | 0.8809 | 26.52*** |
| γleverage | 0.0825 | 1.08 |
0.954
Persistence15d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2937 | 2.41** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0316 | 2.08** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8809 | 26.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0825 | 1.08 |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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