V-Lab
Sats As GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
30.56%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
31.57%
increased by 0.78%
1 Month
34.37%
increased by 3.58%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 01:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3080 | 2.46** |
| αARCH | 0.0316 | 2.06** |
| βGARCH | 0.8774 | 26.12*** |
| γleverage | 0.0862 | 1.11 |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3080 | 2.46** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0316 | 2.06** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8774 | 26.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0862 | 1.11 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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