Sats As AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
29.85%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
31.36%
increased by 0.95%
1 Month
35.03%
increased by 4.62%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2019 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.52) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3978 | 14.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1112 | 15.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8229 | 104.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5206 | 5.19*** |
Persistence:
0.934
Half-life:
10 days
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