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V-Lab

Sats As AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

29.85%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Week

31.36%

increased by 0.95%

1 Month

35.03%

increased by 4.62%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Sats As AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 23, 2019 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.52) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3978
14.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1112
15.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8229
104.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5206
5.19***

Persistence:

0.934

Half-life:

10 days