Sats As AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
28.68%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
30.46%
increased by 1.09%
1 Month
34.55%
increased by 5.18%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 12:57 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4305 | 3.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.1094 | 3.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8156 | 24.32*** |
| γleverage | 0.6068 | 1.44 |
0.925
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4305 | 3.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1094 | 3.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8156 | 24.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6068 | 1.44 |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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