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V-Lab
V-Lab

Sats As MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

28.06%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

28.06%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

28.52%

increased by 0.36%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Sats As MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 23, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 258 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~258 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9878
190.54***
γleverage0.0190
2.82***
λ₁tau intercept5.3181
0.73
λ₂forecast adj.0.1221
0.78
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.997

Persistence

258d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9878
190.54***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0190
2.82***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

5.3181
0.73
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1221
0.78
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

258 days