V-Lab
Sats As MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
31.27%
1 Week
31.46%
1 Month
31.58%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 235 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9874 | 346.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0194 | 8.05*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.3078 | 0.03 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1496 | 0.04 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
235 days
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