Skip to main content
V-Lab

Sats As MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

27.47%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

28.10%

increased by 0.43%

1 Month

29.52%

increased by 1.85%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Sats As MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 23, 2019 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 66% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0458
9.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8398
84.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0301
4.26***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0306
0.77
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0212
2.16**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9729
64.33***

Persistence:

0.901

Half-life:

7 days