Sats As MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
27.47%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
28.10%
increased by 0.43%
1 Month
29.52%
increased by 1.85%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2019 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 66% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0458 | 9.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8398 | 84.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0301 | 4.26*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0306 | 0.77 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0212 | 2.16** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9729 | 64.33*** |
Persistence:
0.901
Half-life:
7 days
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