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V-Lab

Sats As MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

31.27%

increased by 1.14%

1 Week

31.46%

increased by 1.33%

1 Month

31.58%

increased by 1.45%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Sats As MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 23, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 235 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9874
346.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0194
8.05***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

5.3078
0.03
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1496
0.04
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

235 days