V-Lab
Sats As MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
27.33%
1 Week
27.37%
1 Month
28.05%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 01:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 248 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9875 | 184.90*** |
| γleverage | 0.0193 | 2.82*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 5.3688 | 0.73 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1228 | 0.79 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.997
Persistence248d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9875 | 184.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0193 | 2.82*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.3688 | 0.73 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1228 | 0.79 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
248 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on International Equities