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V-Lab
V-Lab

Sats As MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

27.33%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

27.37%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

28.05%

increased by 0.72%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 01:27 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Sats As MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 23, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 248 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~248 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9875
184.90***
γleverage0.0193
2.82***
λ₁tau intercept5.3688
0.73
λ₂forecast adj.0.1228
0.79
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.997

Persistence

248d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9875
184.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0193
2.82***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

5.3688
0.73
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1228
0.79
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

248 days