Sats As GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
30.84%
increased by 1.11%
1 Week
31.77%
increased by 2.04%
1 Month
34.33%
increased by 4.60%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 12:57 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3074 | 2.53** |
| αARCH | 0.0842 | 2.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8663 | 23.99*** |
0.951
Persistence14d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3074 | 2.53** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0842 | 2.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8663 | 23.99*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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