Sats As Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
22.94%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
23.38%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
24.43%
increased by 1.10%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2019 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9766 | 5.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0930 | 2.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8260 | 18.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0395 | -1.73* |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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