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V-Lab

Sats As Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

22.94%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Week

23.38%

increased by 0.05%

1 Month

24.43%

increased by 1.10%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Sats As SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 23, 2019 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9766
5.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0930
2.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8260
18.83***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0395
-1.73*

Persistence:

0.919

Half-life:

8 days