Sats As Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
30.86%
increased by 1.20%
1 Week
31.61%
increased by 1.95%
1 Month
32.71%
increased by 3.05%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 12:58 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7590 | 3.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.0794 | 2.19** |
| βGARCH | 0.7471 | 9.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -1.5316 | -2.70*** |
| γ2 | 2.6834 | 3.32*** |
| γ3 | -2.1369 | -4.39*** |
| γ4 | 1.4081 | 3.25*** |
| γ5 | -0.5612 | -1.12 |
| γ6 | 0.5670 | 0.67 |
0.826
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7590 | 3.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0794 | 2.19** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7471 | 9.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -1.5316 | -2.70*** |
| γ2 | 2.6834 | 3.32*** |
| γ3 | -2.1369 | -4.39*** |
| γ4 | 1.4081 | 3.25*** |
| γ5 | -0.5612 | -1.12 |
| γ6 | 0.5670 | 0.67 |
Persistence:
0.826
Half-life:
4 days
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