Sats As MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
27.83%
increased by 0.80%
1 Week
29.75%
increased by 2.72%
1 Month
34.42%
increased by 7.39%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 12:57 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4272 | 1.93* |
| αARCH | 0.2884 | 5.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6489 | 18.54*** |
0.937
Persistence11d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4272 | 1.93* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2884 | 5.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6489 | 18.54*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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