V-Lab
Shanghai Model Organisms Center Inc MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
121.51%
decreased by 11.91%
1 Week
119.19%
decreased by 14.23%
1 Month
110.95%
decreased by 22.47%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 28, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3184 | 4.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2062 | 16.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7691 | 78.54*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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