V-Lab
Shanghai Model Organisms Center Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
122.79%
increased by 0.12%
1 Week
117.90%
decreased by 4.77%
1 Month
102.36%
decreased by 20.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 28, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.8353 | 3.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1057 | 11.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9499 | 70.02*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5772 | 6.09*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
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