V-Lab
Shanghai Model Organisms Center Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
108.32%
decreased by 4.71%
1 Week
103.75%
decreased by 9.28%
1 Month
91.15%
decreased by 21.88%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 28, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1098 | 6.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1069 | 3.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8195 | 15.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.3618 | 3.47*** |
| γ2 | -0.5044 | -3.69*** |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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