V-Lab
Shanghai Model Organisms Center Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
115.14%
decreased by 6.73%
1 Week
110.90%
decreased by 10.97%
1 Month
97.23%
decreased by 24.64%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 28, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 209% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4711 | 8.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1445 | 9.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8575 | 77.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0978 | -4.55*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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