V-Lab
Sats As GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
29.95%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
31.04%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
34.00%
increased by 3.30%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 01:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 4.23 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.3233 | 1.11 |
| αARCH | 0.0921 | 2.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9500 | 20.64*** |
| νDF | 4.2307 | 1.05 |
0.950
Persistence14d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.3233 | 1.11 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0921 | 2.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9500 | 20.64*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2307 | 1.05 |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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