V-Lab
Sats As GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
34.83%
increased by 5.13%
1 Week
35.38%
increased by 5.68%
1 Month
36.92%
increased by 7.22%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.3758 | 4.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0932 | 10.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9482 | 80.85*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2350 | 4.14*** |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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