Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Sats As GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

29.95%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Week

31.04%

increased by 0.34%

1 Month

34.00%

increased by 3.30%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 01:27 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Sats As GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 23, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 4.23 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst6.3233
1.11
αARCH0.0921
2.66***
βGARCH0.9500
20.64***
νDF4.2307
1.05

0.950

Persistence

14d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.3233
1.11
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0921
2.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9500
20.64***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2307
1.05

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

14 days