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V-Lab

Sats As GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

34.83%

increased by 5.13%

1 Week

35.38%

increased by 5.68%

1 Month

36.92%

increased by 7.22%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Sats As GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 23, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.3758
4.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0932
10.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9482
80.85***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2350
4.14***

Persistence:

0.948

Half-life:

13 days