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Sats As GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

29.43%

decreased by 2.06%

1 Week

30.41%

decreased by 1.08%

1 Month

33.13%

increased by 1.64%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Sats As GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 23, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 4.21 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run6.2760
1.09
αscore0.0890
2.69***
βpersistence0.9526
21.16***
νDF4.2134
1.05

0.953

Persistence

14d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

6.2760
1.09
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0890
2.69***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9526
21.16***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2134
1.05

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

14 days