Sats As GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
29.43%
decreased by 2.06%
1 Week
30.41%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Month
33.13%
increased by 1.64%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 4.21 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 6.2760 | 1.09 |
| αscore | 0.0890 | 2.69*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9526 | 21.16*** |
| νDF | 4.2134 | 1.05 |
0.953
Persistence14d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 6.2760 | 1.09 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0890 | 2.69*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9526 | 21.16*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2134 | 1.05 |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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