V-Lab
NX Filtration N.V. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
41.23%
1 Week
44.50%
1 Month
55.39%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2021 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 147 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 125.2320 | 1.30 |
| αARCH | 0.1848 | 17.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9953 | 300.42*** |
| νDF | 2.9272 | 15.52*** |
0.995
Persistence147d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 125.2320 | 1.30 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1848 | 17.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9953 | 300.42*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9272 | 15.52*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
147 days
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