V-Lab
IEC Education Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
79.73%
decreased by 5.59%
1 Week
74.16%
decreased by 11.16%
1 Month
60.57%
decreased by 24.75%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 09:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 9, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3393 | 5.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2797 | 2.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6161 | 5.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.2057 | -2.96*** |
| γ2 | 0.3486 | 3.36*** |
| γ3 | -0.2059 | -3.14*** |
| γ4 | 0.0866 | 1.81* |
Persistence:
0.896
Half-life:
6 days
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