V-Lab
Hangzhou Prevail Optoelectronic Equipment Co., Ltd. APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
44.35%
1 Week
47.04%
1 Month
53.23%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 2017 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 1.48 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6073 | 2.00** |
| αARCH | 0.1728 | 4.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7687 | 18.39*** |
| γleverage | -0.0514 | -0.48 |
| δpower | 1.4823 | 3.69*** |
0.917
Persistence8d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6073 | 2.00** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1728 | 4.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7687 | 18.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0514 | -0.48 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4823 | 3.69*** |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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