V-Lab
Loreal Sa GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
24.27%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
24.29%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
24.37%
decreased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 03:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2017 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~81 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0219 | 1.51 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9609 | 96.74*** |
| γleverage | 0.0612 | 2.59*** |
0.992
Persistence81d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0219 | 1.51 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9609 | 96.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0612 | 2.59*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
81 days
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