V-Lab
Loreal Sa GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
24.69%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
24.70%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Month
24.75%
decreased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2017 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~81 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0219 | 1.52 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9610 | 97.09*** |
| γleverage | 0.0609 | 2.59*** |
0.991
Persistence81d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0219 | 1.52 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9610 | 97.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0609 | 2.59*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
81 days
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