Loreal Sa GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
22.84%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
22.89%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
23.07%
decreased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2017 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0220 | 6.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9607 | 384.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0618 | 10.43*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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