Loreal Sa GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
21.52%
increased by 0.58%
1 Week
21.59%
increased by 0.65%
1 Month
21.87%
increased by 0.93%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2017 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~91 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0202 | 1.45 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9633 | 102.21*** |
| γleverage | 0.0582 | 2.55** |
0.992
Persistence91d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0202 | 1.45 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9633 | 102.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0582 | 2.55** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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