Loreal Sa MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
22.76%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
22.83%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
23.08%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2017 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9541 | 225.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0641 | 15.64*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.5119 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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