Loreal Sa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
23.43%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Week
23.43%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Month
23.42%
decreased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2017 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.89 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1696 | 3.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0394 | 8.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9762 | 157.78*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8869 | 3.59*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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