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Loreal Sa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

25.87%

increased by 0.33%

1 Week

25.77%

increased by 0.23%

1 Month

25.43%

decreased by 0.11%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Loreal Sa GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 4, 2017 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 29-day half-lifev = 4.93 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.2325
1.16
αscore0.0418
2.50**
βpersistence0.9763
52.16***
νDF4.9330
0.65

0.976

Persistence

29d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.2325
1.16
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0418
2.50**
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9763
52.16***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.9330
0.65

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

29 days