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Loreal Sa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

25.49%

decreased by 0.97%

1 Week

25.40%

decreased by 1.06%

1 Month

25.08%

decreased by 1.38%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:08 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Loreal Sa GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 4, 2017 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 30-day half-lifev = 4.01 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.1667
0.94
αARCH0.0395
2.20**
βGARCH0.9772
43.57***
νDF4.0141
0.92

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1667
0.94
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0395
2.20**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9772
43.57***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.0141
0.92

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days