V-Lab
Loreal Sa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
26.52%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Week
26.39%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Month
25.92%
decreased by 1.65%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 03:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 4, 2017 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.98 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 29-day half-lifev = 3.98 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1692 | 0.92 |
| αARCH | 0.0396 | 2.12** |
| βGARCH | 0.9767 | 42.04*** |
| νDF | 3.9789 | 0.90 |
0.977
Persistence29d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1692 | 0.92 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0396 | 2.12** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9767 | 42.04*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.9789 | 0.90 |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
29 days
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