V-Lab
Rheinmetall AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
51.95%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
53.75%
increased by 1.44%
1 Month
56.31%
increased by 4.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2019 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5780 | 6.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1248 | 1.69* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6989 | 5.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -2.0761 | -5.03*** |
| γ2 | 3.9558 | 6.08*** |
| γ3 | -3.6825 | -6.47*** |
| γ4 | 3.0797 | 4.76*** |
| γ5 | -1.6261 | -2.35** |
| γ6 | 0.2226 | 0.38 |
Persistence:
0.824
Half-life:
4 days
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