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V-Lab

NASDAQ 100 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

17.13%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Week

17.75%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

19.02%

increased by 1.38%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NASDAQ 100 MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8223
55.85***
γleverage0.1867
12.46***
λ₁tau intercept0.0087
2.01**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0456
3.71***
λ₃tau persistence0.9505
71.60***

0.916

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8223
55.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1867
12.46***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0087
2.01**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0456
3.71***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9505
71.60***

Persistence:

0.916

Half-life:

8 days