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Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

41.84%

increased by 0.16%

1 Week

41.38%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Month

39.71%

decreased by 1.97%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7928
4.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0795
12.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9814
226.81***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.6949
3.39***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

37 days