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Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

49.43%

decreased by 3.79%

1 Week

48.86%

decreased by 4.36%

1 Month

46.78%

decreased by 6.44%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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graph of Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.0229
4.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0829
13.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9831
266.58***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.6579
3.76***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days