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Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

32.56%

decreased by 2.62%

1 Week

32.36%

decreased by 2.82%

1 Month

31.62%

decreased by 3.56%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.9012
3.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0883
12.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9790
193.21***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.6273
3.35***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days