V-Lab
Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
49.43%
decreased by 3.79%
1 Week
48.86%
decreased by 4.36%
1 Month
46.78%
decreased by 6.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.0229 | 4.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0829 | 13.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9831 | 266.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6579 | 3.76*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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