V-Lab
Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
44.09%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
46.85%
increased by 1.89%
1 Month
47.47%
increased by 2.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8379 | 3.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1457 | 1.49 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 40.8404 | 2.67*** |
| γ2 | -81.6736 | -3.91*** |
| γ3 | 84.5974 | 5.61*** |
| γ4 | -80.4451 | -4.05*** |
| γ5 | 61.1397 | 2.89*** |
| γ6 | -41.4246 | -2.22** |
| γ7 | 43.3716 | 2.76*** |
| γ8 | -47.5609 | -3.23*** |
| γ9 | 23.5161 | 2.18** |
Persistence:
0.146
Half-life:
0 days
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