V-Lab
Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
44.06%
decreased by 9.03%
1 Week
44.95%
decreased by 8.14%
1 Month
45.15%
decreased by 7.94%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9132 | 3.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1448 | 1.51 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 47.2806 | 3.08*** |
| γ2 | -92.1800 | -4.39*** |
| γ3 | 90.6267 | 5.67*** |
| γ4 | -81.5166 | -3.88*** |
| γ5 | 57.3683 | 2.66*** |
| γ6 | -35.8835 | -1.92* |
| γ7 | 38.5860 | 2.48** |
| γ8 | -43.6962 | -2.98*** |
| γ9 | 21.2411 | 2.05** |
Persistence:
0.145
Half-life:
0 days
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