V-Lab
Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
40.20%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Week
42.58%
increased by 1.27%
1 Month
43.10%
increased by 1.79%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8332 | 3.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1370 | 1.44 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 38.2761 | 2.51** |
| γ2 | -76.7492 | -3.70*** |
| γ3 | 80.6150 | 5.72*** |
| γ4 | -78.5345 | -4.25*** |
| γ5 | 61.2715 | 3.01*** |
| γ6 | -41.5765 | -2.26** |
| γ7 | 43.1298 | 2.78*** |
| γ8 | -50.5640 | -3.59*** |
| γ9 | 28.7732 | 2.76*** |
Persistence:
0.137
Half-life:
0 days
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