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V-Lab

Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

47.59%

decreased by 3.51%

1 Week

46.80%

decreased by 4.30%

1 Month

44.04%

decreased by 7.06%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.41) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0631
3.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1141
11.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8599
71.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.4133
-4.25***

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days