V-Lab
Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
47.59%
decreased by 3.51%
1 Week
46.80%
decreased by 4.30%
1 Month
44.04%
decreased by 7.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.41) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0631 | 3.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1141 | 11.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8599 | 71.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4133 | -4.25*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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