V-Lab
Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
33.69%
decreased by 2.77%
1 Week
33.78%
decreased by 2.68%
1 Month
34.05%
decreased by 2.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 57% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1315 | 8.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3140 | 12.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7165 | 39.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1144 | -3.24*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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