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V-Lab

Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

50.39%

decreased by 2.17%

1 Week

50.87%

decreased by 1.69%

1 Month

51.09%

decreased by 1.47%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 290 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1125
18.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9414
412.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1125
-12.28***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.07
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2012
0.07
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

290 days