V-Lab
Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
50.39%
1 Week
50.87%
1 Month
51.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 290 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1125 | 18.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9414 | 412.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1125 | -12.28*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.07 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2012 | 0.07 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
290 days
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