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V-Lab

Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

42.66%

decreased by 1.39%

1 Week

43.01%

decreased by 1.04%

1 Month

42.78%

decreased by 1.27%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 264 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1251
21.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9349
399.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1251
-13.78***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.08
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2181
0.08
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

264 days