V-Lab
Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
54.41%
1 Week
55.98%
1 Month
62.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2511 trading days (~10.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1811 | 30.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8984 | 174.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1595 | -14.10*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.25 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 0.24 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2511 days
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