V-Lab
Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
59.39%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
62.94%
increased by 2.90%
1 Month
63.73%
increased by 3.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8673 | 3.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1391 | 1.41 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 44.8416 | 2.95*** |
| γ2 | -88.5831 | -4.28*** |
| γ3 | 89.9590 | 6.11*** |
| γ4 | -84.3850 | -4.37*** |
| γ5 | 62.8671 | 3.01*** |
| γ6 | -41.2285 | -2.19** |
| γ7 | 43.7942 | 2.74*** |
| γ8 | -54.3585 | -3.54*** |
| γ9 | 47.9912 | 2.74*** |
Persistence:
0.139
Half-life:
0 days
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