V-Lab
Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
52.59%
1 Week
52.60%
1 Month
52.64%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 193 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 287% more than negative returns
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1411 | 3.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0825 | 5.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8454 | 58.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2217 | -6.81*** |
δ power Transformation power | 3.0000 | 9.05*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
193 days
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