Skip to main content
V-Lab

Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

52.59%

decreased by 2.93%

1 Week

52.60%

decreased by 2.92%

1 Month

52.64%

decreased by 2.88%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 193 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 3.00 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 287% more than negative returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1411
3.49***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0825
5.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8454
58.28***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2217
-6.81***
δ

power

Transformation power

3.0000
9.05***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

193 days