V-Lab
Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
48.52%
decreased by 3.10%
1 Week
48.15%
decreased by 3.47%
1 Month
46.80%
decreased by 4.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 141% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0751 | 5.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1532 | 5.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8759 | 70.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0896 | -2.42** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
Other Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on ETFs