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V-Lab

Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

34.31%

decreased by 2.20%

1 Week

34.19%

decreased by 2.32%

1 Month

33.77%

decreased by 2.74%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 131% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0862
6.02***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1555
5.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8666
67.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0882
-2.43**

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days