V-Lab
Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
47.36%
decreased by 1.96%
1 Week
46.89%
decreased by 2.43%
1 Month
45.17%
decreased by 4.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 126% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0742 | 5.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1402 | 4.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8804 | 71.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0780 | -2.10** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
37 days
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