V-Lab
Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
34.31%
decreased by 2.20%
1 Week
34.19%
decreased by 2.32%
1 Month
33.77%
decreased by 2.74%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 131% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0862 | 6.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1555 | 5.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8666 | 67.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0882 | -2.43** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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