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V-Lab

Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

48.52%

decreased by 3.10%

1 Week

48.15%

decreased by 3.47%

1 Month

46.80%

decreased by 4.82%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Defiance OIL Enhanced OP ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 141% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0751
5.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1532
5.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8759
70.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0896
-2.42**

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days