V-Lab
Galileo Resources PLC MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
135.40%
1 Week
142.54%
1 Month
151.97%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 99% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5196 | 21.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1028 | 6.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2580 | -5.39*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.4748 | 0.90 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0793 | 1.03 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8679 | 6.64*** |
Persistence:
0.493
Half-life:
1 days
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