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V-Lab

Galileo Resources PLC Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

107.32%

increased by 5.53%

1 Week

118.48%

increased by 16.69%

1 Month

122.67%

increased by 20.88%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Galileo Resources PLC SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 28, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9264
2.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2753
4.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1552
1.99**
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.5597
1.47
γ2-0.7218
-1.46
γ3-0.3561
-1.20
γ41.5139
5.37***
γ5-1.9469
-7.23***
γ61.4023
4.72***
γ7-0.5765
-1.85*
γ80.7390
1.17

Persistence:

0.430

Half-life:

1 days