V-Lab
Galileo Resources PLC Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
107.32%
increased by 5.53%
1 Week
118.48%
increased by 16.69%
1 Month
122.67%
increased by 20.88%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9264 | 2.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2753 | 4.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1552 | 1.99** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.5597 | 1.47 |
| γ2 | -0.7218 | -1.46 |
| γ3 | -0.3561 | -1.20 |
| γ4 | 1.5139 | 5.37*** |
| γ5 | -1.9469 | -7.23*** |
| γ6 | 1.4023 | 4.72*** |
| γ7 | -0.5765 | -1.85* |
| γ8 | 0.7390 | 1.17 |
Persistence:
0.430
Half-life:
1 days
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