V-Lab
Galileo Resources PLC AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
56.82%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
69.83%
increased by 13.01%
1 Month
77.41%
increased by 20.59%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.82) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.3680 | 25.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3714 | 19.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2492 | 13.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.8219 | -4.25*** |
Persistence:
0.621
Half-life:
1 days
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