V-Lab
Galileo Resources PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
98.77%
increased by 25.28%
1 Week
93.48%
increased by 19.99%
1 Month
91.23%
increased by 17.74%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1407 | 3.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2920 | 5.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1441 | 1.98** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.3694 | 2.68*** |
| γ2 | -1.7520 | -2.29** |
| γ3 | 0.2302 | 0.40 |
| γ4 | -0.3009 | -0.66 |
| γ5 | 1.8576 | 3.85*** |
| γ6 | -2.8216 | -5.27*** |
| γ7 | 1.9923 | 3.46*** |
| γ8 | -0.7914 | -1.51 |
| γ9 | 0.7319 | 1.38 |
| γ10 | -0.8491 | -1.74* |
Persistence:
0.436
Half-life:
1 days
Other Galileo Resources PLC Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities