V-Lab
Galileo Resources PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
101.06%
increased by 22.26%
1 Week
91.74%
increased by 12.94%
1 Month
87.60%
increased by 8.80%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 03:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1359 | 2.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2936 | 5.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1493 | 2.05** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.3149 | 2.59*** |
| γ2 | -1.6625 | -2.20** |
| γ3 | 0.1347 | 0.24 |
| γ4 | -0.1339 | -0.30 |
| γ5 | 1.6483 | 3.61*** |
| γ6 | -2.6810 | -5.40*** |
| γ7 | 1.9571 | 3.57*** |
| γ8 | -0.7726 | -1.53 |
| γ9 | 0.6465 | 1.30 |
| γ10 | -0.7444 | -1.69* |
Persistence:
0.443
Half-life:
1 days
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