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Estun Automation Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

63.01%

increased by 9.87%

1 Week

63.86%

increased by 10.72%

1 Month

66.83%

increased by 13.69%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:17 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Estun Automation Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 9, 2026 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 43 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 43 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 43-day half-lifev = 4.17 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst29.3201
1.17
αARCH0.1044
3.97***
βGARCH0.9839
43.67***
νDF4.1703
2.00**

0.984

Persistence

43d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

29.3201
1.17
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1044
3.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9839
43.67***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1703
2.00**

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

43 days