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Estun Automation Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

74.53%

increased by 1.68%

1 Week

77.80%

increased by 4.95%

1 Month

85.58%

increased by 12.73%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Estun Automation Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 9, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 4.33 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst36.8043
0.40
αARCH0.0901
0.81
βGARCH0.9281
6.43***
νDF4.3269
0.22

0.928

Persistence

9d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

36.8043
0.40
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0901
0.81
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9281
6.43***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.3269
0.22

Persistence:

0.928

Half-life:

9 days