V-Lab
Estun Automation Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
74.53%
increased by 1.68%
1 Week
77.80%
increased by 4.95%
1 Month
85.58%
increased by 12.73%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 4.33 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 36.8043 | 0.40 |
| αARCH | 0.0901 | 0.81 |
| βGARCH | 0.9281 | 6.43*** |
| νDF | 4.3269 | 0.22 |
0.928
Persistence9d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 36.8043 | 0.40 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0901 | 0.81 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9281 | 6.43*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.3269 | 0.22 |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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