Estun Automation Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
68.76%
decreased by 2.14%
1 Week
69.75%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Month
73.01%
increased by 2.11%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 06:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.40 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 4.40 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 29.8414 | 0.79 |
| αscore | 0.1050 | 3.62*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9748 | 27.89*** |
| νDF | 4.3978 | 0.97 |
0.975
Persistence27d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 29.8414 | 0.79 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1050 | 3.62*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9748 | 27.89*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.3978 | 0.97 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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