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V-Lab

Estun Automation Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

68.76%

decreased by 2.14%

1 Week

69.75%

decreased by 1.15%

1 Month

73.01%

increased by 2.11%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 06:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Estun Automation Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 9, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.40 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 4.40 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run29.8414
0.79
αscore0.1050
3.62***
βpersistence0.9748
27.89***
νDF4.3978
0.97

0.975

Persistence

27d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

29.8414
0.79
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1050
3.62***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9748
27.89***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.3978
0.97

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days