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V-Lab

Estun Automation Co Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

60.91%

decreased by 4.07%

1 Week

79.71%

increased by 14.73%

1 Month

107.42%

increased by 42.44%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Estun Automation Co Ltd AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 9, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -2.31) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.1023
1.96**
αARCH0.4827
2.90***
βGARCH0.3973
5.44***
γleverage-2.3107
-2.28**

0.880

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.1023
1.96**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4827
2.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3973
5.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-2.3107
-2.28**

Persistence:

0.880

Half-life:

5 days