Estun Automation Co Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
60.91%
decreased by 4.07%
1 Week
79.71%
increased by 14.73%
1 Month
107.42%
increased by 42.44%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -2.31) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.1023 | 1.96** |
| αARCH | 0.4827 | 2.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3973 | 5.44*** |
| γleverage | -2.3107 | -2.28** |
0.880
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.1023 | 1.96** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4827 | 2.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3973 | 5.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -2.3107 | -2.28** |
Persistence:
0.880
Half-life:
5 days
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