Estun Automation Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
38.75%
1 Week
44.84%
1 Month
62.78%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days. The volatility power δ = 1.40 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5217 | 1.14 |
| αARCH | 0.1385 | 0.04 |
| βGARCH | 0.8119 | 10.16*** |
| γleverage | -1.0000 | -0.02 |
| δpower | 1.4011 | 3.03*** |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5217 | 1.14 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1385 | 0.04 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8119 | 10.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -0.02 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4011 | 3.03*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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