Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Estun Automation Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

38.75%

increased by 0.78%

1 Week

44.84%

increased by 6.87%

1 Month

62.78%

increased by 24.81%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Estun Automation Co Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 9, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days. The volatility power δ = 1.40 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-lifeδ = 1.40 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5217
1.14
αARCH0.1385
0.04
βGARCH0.8119
10.16***
γleverage-1.0000
-0.02
δpower1.4011
3.03***

0.966

Persistence

20d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5217
1.14
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1385
0.04
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8119
10.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-0.02
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4011
3.03***

Persistence:

0.966

Half-life:

20 days