Estun Automation Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
41.05%
increased by 4.17%
1 Week
42.09%
increased by 5.21%
1 Month
45.08%
increased by 8.20%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
μ
APMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4437 | 1.09 |
| αARCH | 0.0730 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8191 | 11.76*** |
| γleverage | -1.0000 | 0.00 |
| δpower | 1.9332 | 2.69*** |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeμ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4437 | 1.09 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0730 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8191 | 11.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9332 | 2.69*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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