Estun Automation Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
41.98%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
42.06%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
42.37%
increased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 06:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 130 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~130 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2098 | 3.57*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9947 | 1.38 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 59.2143 | 0.17 |
| γ2 | -130.3120 | -0.56 |
| γ3 | 108.2075 | 1.17 |
0.995
Persistence130d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2098 | 3.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9947 | 1.38 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 59.2143 | 0.17 |
| γ2 | -130.3120 | -0.56 |
| γ3 | 108.2075 | 1.17 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
130 days
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