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V-Lab

Estun Automation Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

38.75%

increased by 0.04%

1 Week

38.82%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

39.11%

increased by 0.40%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Estun Automation Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 9, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 130 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~130 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2098
3.57***
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9947
1.38
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ159.2143
0.17
γ2-130.3120
-0.56
γ3108.2075
1.17

0.995

Persistence

130d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2098
3.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9947
1.38
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ159.2143
0.17
γ2-130.3120
-0.56
γ3108.2075
1.17

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

130 days