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V-Lab

Estun Automation Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

84.33%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

84.33%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

84.33%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Estun Automation Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 9, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2067
4.88***
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8566
3.86***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1151.5038
4.74***
γ2-243.9607
-4.53***
γ3121.6046
3.65***

0.857

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2067
4.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8566
3.86***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1151.5038
4.74***
γ2-243.9607
-4.53***
γ3121.6046
3.65***

Persistence:

0.857

Half-life:

4 days