V-Lab
Estun Automation Co Ltd Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
85.21%
decreased by 1.28%
1 Week
84.96%
decreased by 1.53%
1 Month
84.04%
decreased by 2.45%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1435 | 0.96 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1885 | 6.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8979 | 29.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1885 | -2.70*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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