Estun Automation Co Ltd Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
40.98%
increased by 4.08%
1 Week
42.11%
increased by 5.21%
1 Month
45.38%
increased by 8.48%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4780 | 1.09 |
| αARCH | 0.2808 | 2.42** |
| βGARCH | 0.8170 | 11.26*** |
| γleverage | -0.2808 | -1.73* |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4780 | 1.09 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2808 | 2.42** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8170 | 11.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2808 | -1.73* |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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