Estun Automation Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
69.29%
decreased by 6.62%
1 Week
73.19%
decreased by 2.72%
1 Month
86.71%
increased by 10.80%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 06:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 158 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~158 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1916 | 1.29 |
| αARCH | 0.4292 | 1.41 |
| βGARCH | 0.7810 | 9.03*** |
| γleverage | -0.4292 | -1.33 |
0.996
Persistence158d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1916 | 1.29 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4292 | 1.41 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7810 | 9.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4292 | -1.33 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
158 days
Other Estun Automation Co Ltd Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on International Equities