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Estun Automation Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

39.31%

increased by 0.21%

1 Week

46.15%

increased by 7.05%

1 Month

66.34%

increased by 27.24%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Estun Automation Co Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 9, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 158 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~158 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1916
1.29
αARCH0.4292
1.41
βGARCH0.7810
9.03***
γleverage-0.4292
-1.33

0.996

Persistence

158d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1916
1.29
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4292
1.41
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7810
9.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.4292
-1.33

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

158 days