Estun Automation Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
45.79%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
45.79%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
45.79%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2619 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 1.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 66.1851 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -147.7497 | -0.29 |
| γ3 | 138.3496 | 0.28 |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2619 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 1.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 66.1851 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -147.7497 | -0.29 |
| γ3 | 138.3496 | 0.28 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
Other Estun Automation Co Ltd Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities