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Estun Automation Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

45.79%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

45.79%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

45.79%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Estun Automation Co Ltd SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 9, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2619
0.00
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH1.0000
0.00
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ166.1851
0.00
γ2-147.7497
-0.29
γ3138.3496
0.28

1.000

Persistence

693147d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2619
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

1.0000
0.00
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ166.1851
0.00
γ2-147.7497
-0.29
γ3138.3496
0.28

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days