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Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

13.19%

increased by 0.25%

1 Week

13.71%

increased by 0.77%

1 Month

15.26%

increased by 2.32%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:53 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.0167
2.18**
βGARCH0.8425
59.27***
γleverage0.1540
9.01***
λ₁tau intercept0.0034
2.04**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0240
4.57***
λ₃tau persistence0.9741
172.62***

0.936

Persistence

11d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0167
2.18**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8425
59.27***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1540
9.01***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0034
2.04**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0240
4.57***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9741
172.62***

Persistence:

0.936

Half-life:

11 days