VanEck Solana ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
53.62%
decreased by 4.59%
1 Week
56.50%
decreased by 1.71%
1 Month
63.62%
increased by 5.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.51 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-lifev = 6.51 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 22.1779 | 0.75 |
| αscore | 0.1314 | 1.21 |
| βpersistence | 0.9373 | 11.28*** |
| νDF | 6.5112 | 0.26 |
0.937
Persistence11d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 22.1779 | 0.75 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1314 | 1.21 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9373 | 11.28*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5112 | 0.26 |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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