V-Lab
VanEck Solana ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
83.88%
increased by 23.69%
1 Week
83.77%
increased by 23.58%
1 Month
83.45%
increased by 23.26%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 13-day half-lifev = 6.83 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 27.1655 | 0.65 |
| αARCH | 0.1402 | 1.21 |
| βGARCH | 0.9480 | 12.95*** |
| νDF | 6.8339 | 0.25 |
0.948
Persistence13d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 27.1655 | 0.65 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1402 | 1.21 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9480 | 12.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.8339 | 0.25 |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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