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V-Lab
V-Lab

VanEck Solana ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

88.32%

increased by 31.55%

1 Week

85.48%

increased by 28.71%

1 Month

78.01%

increased by 21.24%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of VanEck Solana ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 17, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1958
3.57***
αARCH0.1227
2.00**
βGARCH0.7993
6.77***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.5621
0.55

0.922

Persistence

9d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1958
3.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1227
2.00**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7993
6.77***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.5621
0.55

Persistence:

0.922

Half-life:

9 days