V-Lab
VanEck Solana ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
88.32%
increased by 31.55%
1 Week
85.48%
increased by 28.71%
1 Month
78.01%
increased by 21.24%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1958 | 3.57*** |
| αARCH | 0.1227 | 2.00** |
| βGARCH | 0.7993 | 6.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.5621 | 0.55 |
0.922
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1958 | 3.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1227 | 2.00** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7993 | 6.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.5621 | 0.55 |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
Other VanEck Solana ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs