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VanEck Solana ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

57.56%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

58.93%

increased by 1.38%

1 Month

62.09%

increased by 4.54%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

All

graph of VanEck Solana ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 17, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 1.73 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifeδ = 1.73 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0000
0.58
αARCH0.0883
1.54
βGARCH0.8281
7.95***
γleverage0.3503
0.87
δpower1.7325
1.64

0.915

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
0.58
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0883
1.54
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8281
7.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3503
0.87
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7325
1.64

Persistence:

0.915

Half-life:

8 days