VanEck Solana ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
57.56%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
58.93%
increased by 1.38%
1 Month
62.09%
increased by 4.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 1.73 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifeδ = 1.73 · sub-quadratic power
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 0.58 |
| αARCH | 0.0883 | 1.54 |
| βGARCH | 0.8281 | 7.95*** |
| γleverage | 0.3503 | 0.87 |
| δpower | 1.7325 | 1.64 |
0.915
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 0.58 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0883 | 1.54 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8281 | 7.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3503 | 0.87 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7325 | 1.64 |
Persistence:
0.915
Half-life:
8 days
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