V-Lab
VanEck Solana ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
161.61%
1 Week
113.46%
1 Month
101.07%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.5000 | 24.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | -0.5000 | -22.45*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 1.1494 | 3.81*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1279 | 6.53*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8721 | 45.27*** |
0.250
Persistence1d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 24.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -22.45*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.1494 | 3.81*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1279 | 6.53*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8721 | 45.27*** |
Persistence:
0.250
Half-life:
1 days
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