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V-Lab

VanEck Solana ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

15.13%

decreased by 1.87%

1 Week

3,818,709,132.68%

increased by 3,818,709,115.68%

1 Month

188,812,573,733,848,560,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 188,812,573,733,848,560,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of VanEck Solana ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 17, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.11
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
3.33***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3305
11.83***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0773
12.95***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.26

Persistence:

0.165

Half-life:

0 days