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V-Lab

VanEck Solana ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

29.03%

decreased by 68.69%

1 Week

814,757,318,469.74%

increased by 814,757,318,372.02%

1 Month

6,163,702,783,230,223,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 6,163,702,783,230,223,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of VanEck Solana ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 17, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 100% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

1.0000
196.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
3.33***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-49.04***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2671
107.14***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.06

Persistence:

0.750

Half-life:

2 days