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VanEck Solana ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

161.61%

increased by 83.30%

1 Week

113.46%

increased by 35.15%

1 Month

101.07%

increased by 22.76%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of VanEck Solana ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 17, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.5000
24.89***
βGARCH0.0000
0.00
γleverage-0.5000
-22.45***
λ₁tau intercept1.1494
3.81***
λ₂forecast adj.0.1279
6.53***
λ₃tau persistence0.8721
45.27***

0.250

Persistence

1d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5000
24.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-22.45***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.1494
3.81***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1279
6.53***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8721
45.27***

Persistence:

0.250

Half-life:

1 days