VanEck Solana ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
65.77%
decreased by 4.83%
1 Week
69.85%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Month
70.69%
increased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 9.54) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.5301 | 17.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0849 | 6.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0011 | 4.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 9.5395 | 11.85*** |
Persistence:
0.086
Half-life:
0 days
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