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V-Lab

VanEck Solana ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

65.77%

decreased by 4.83%

1 Week

69.85%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Month

70.69%

increased by 0.09%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of VanEck Solana ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 17, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 9.54) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

10.5301
17.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0849
6.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0011
4.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

9.5395
11.85***

Persistence:

0.086

Half-life:

0 days