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ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

58.52%

decreased by 0.94%

1 Week

66.35%

increased by 6.89%

1 Month

80.74%

increased by 21.28%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.3655
10.24***
βGARCH0.7218
31.29***
γleverage-0.3655
-10.18***
λ₁tau intercept0.2782
0.66
λ₂forecast adj.0.0162
1.14
λ₃tau persistence0.9783
45.69***

0.905

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3655
10.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7218
31.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3655
-10.18***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2782
0.66
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0162
1.14
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9783
45.69***

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days