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ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

128.94%

increased by 62.43%

1 Week

123.54%

increased by 57.03%

1 Month

110.83%

increased by 44.32%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2011 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.3667
10.26***
βGARCH0.7215
31.33***
γleverage-0.3667
-10.21***
λ₁tau intercept0.2792
0.66
λ₂forecast adj.0.0161
1.14
λ₃tau persistence0.9785
45.99***

0.905

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3667
10.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7215
31.33***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3667
-10.21***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2792
0.66
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0161
1.14
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9785
45.99***

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days