V-Lab
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
58.52%
1 Week
66.35%
1 Month
80.74%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 76 | |
| αARCH | 0.3655 | 10.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7218 | 31.29*** |
| γleverage | -0.3655 | -10.18*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.2782 | 0.66 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0162 | 1.14 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9783 | 45.69*** |
0.905
Persistence7d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3655 | 10.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7218 | 31.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3655 | -10.18*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2782 | 0.66 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0162 | 1.14 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9783 | 45.69*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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