V-Lab
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
67.26%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Week
77.07%
increased by 9.00%
1 Month
90.37%
increased by 22.30%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3188 | 11.17*** |
| αARCH | 0.2349 | 7.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6011 | 14.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0030 | 3.23*** |
0.836
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3188 | 11.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2349 | 7.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6011 | 14.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0030 | 3.23*** |
Persistence:
0.836
Half-life:
4 days
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