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V-Lab
V-Lab

ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

80.98%

decreased by 9.12%

1 Week

86.25%

decreased by 3.85%

1 Month

94.48%

increased by 4.38%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 1, 2011 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2936
12.12***
αARCH0.2362
8.04***
βGARCH0.6148
14.86***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0027
3.46***

0.851

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2936
12.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2362
8.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6148
14.86***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0027
3.46***

Persistence:

0.851

Half-life:

4 days