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V-Lab

ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

69.66%

decreased by 0.86%

1 Week

79.10%

increased by 8.58%

1 Month

92.81%

increased by 22.29%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2832
12.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2359
8.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6133
14.68***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0027
3.34***

Persistence:

0.849

Half-life:

4 days