V-Lab
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
85.90%
decreased by 9.05%
1 Week
90.26%
decreased by 4.69%
1 Month
97.15%
increased by 2.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2795 | 12.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2357 | 7.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6139 | 14.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0027 | 3.28*** |
Persistence:
0.850
Half-life:
4 days
Other ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs