ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
88.37%
decreased by 8.89%
1 Week
92.04%
decreased by 5.22%
1 Month
97.90%
increased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2798 | 12.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2365 | 7.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6131 | 14.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0027 | 3.27*** |
Persistence:
0.850
Half-life:
4 days
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